中蒙俄文化廊道——"丝绸之路经济带"视域下的"万里茶道"

丝绸之路自开辟以后半通半停,奥斯曼帝国兴起后彻底中断;欧洲商人的"地理大发现"从南、西、北三个方向到达东方的同时,山西商人开辟"万里茶道"到达西方,说明晋商"万里茶道"与开创精神的重要世界地位. 通过"万里茶道"联合申遗,建设中蒙俄文化廊道,依托国际大通道,开展经贸文化旅游交流,展开"丝绸之路经济带"的"文化翼",对于建设"丝绸之路经济带"具有不可或缺的重大作用,在山西未来发展史上具有重要的战略意义.     

中国农业保险的赔付风险:风险测度与应对策略——基于1984~2012年农业保险与财产保险赔付率的滤波分解与比较

由于农业保险所承保的农业自然灾害具有统计学上的不可预测性,灾害学上的时空延展性和经济学上的不可控性,使得经营农业保险的保险公司面临较高赔付风险. 为测算我国农业保险的赔付风险度,收集整理1984~2012年农业保险与财产保险赔付率数据,采用H-P滤波分解法对其进行长期趋势与短期波动的分解和比较分析. 研究发现:我国农业保险整体赔付水平和赔付的波动幅度远高于财产保险,验证了农业保险具有高风险经营的特性. 但是近年来,农业保险长期赔付趋势呈现平稳略微下降态势,短期波动幅度逐步收敛. 未来随着经营主体的增加,农业保险经营中须把握保险保障度的提升与保险公司经营风险管控的有效平衡;农业保险的适当盈利性与福利改进的有效融合.     

Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited

This paper measures latent fundamental exchange rates with independent component‐based rates constructed from a cross‐section of exchange rates and then uses their deviations from exchange rates to forecast. Empirical results indicate that the independent component‐based model and its Taylor rule and purchasing power parity augmented models are superior to the random walk in predicting exchange rates. These results are robust to several scenarios and are likely to be observed if the U.S. sources and the recursive scheme are applied. Our results reveal that information regarding the third moment of exchange rate changes is helpful to explain exchange rate movements.     

More Facts about Prices: France Before and During the Great Recession

Using microprice data, we document new facts on price rigidity in France: (i) each month 20.1% of prices are changed, which compares to 24.1% in the United States—excluding sales, however, the fraction of prices modified each month is about the same in France and in the United States (around 17%); (ii) the distribution of price changes is quite dispersed; (iii) the frequencies of price increases and decreases contribute a lot to inflation variations, and price increases are more frequent in January (even when sales are excluded); (iv) sales contribute significantly to the volatility of inflation but play a minor role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations to prices; and (v) during the Great Recession patterns of price adjustment were only slightly modified.     

Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位——汇率市场波动传染与波动聚类的实时甄别

随着人民币国际化进程的逐步推进,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位引人瞩目。本文基于非线性MSBIARCH模型,实时甄别人民币市场与美元市场、英镑市场、日元市场、欧元市场之间的波动传染关系,以及波动传染作用下汇率市场的波动聚类态势,进而识别SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化定位,旨在为及时防范并规避人民币市场的波动风险提供参考。研究发现,汇率市场经由“经济基本面”“市场情绪”以及“市场预期”对外发挥波动传染作用,人民币市场与美元市场之间存在双向波动传染关系,与英镑市场、欧元市场以及日元市场之间存在单向波动传染关系。不同汇率市场之间的波动传染关系表现出时间区制转移特征,汇率市场的波动聚类态势也呈现时变特征。汇率市场发挥波动传染作用的时间与汇率市场呈现波动聚类态势的时间相匹配,均集中在极端经济事件期、不规则事件期以及政策颁布事件期。国际汇率市场的波动传染作用导致了人民币市场的波动聚类态势,而人民币市场的波动传染作用仅强化了国际汇率市场的波动聚类态势,SDR货币篮子中人民币的国际化程度有待进一步提高。     

Are analysts' cash flow forecasts useful?

This study provides evidence that the cost of equity capital decreases with the number of analysts who issue both cash flow and earnings forecasts (cash analysts). The evidence also shows that cash analysts reduce information asymmetry and predict long‐term earnings more accurately than analysts who issue only earnings forecasts. Taken together, these findings suggest that cash analysts provide market participants with high‐quality information and, as a result, firms benefit from cash analyst coverage in the form of a reduced cost of equity capital.     

财务公司产业链金融信用风险控制机制研究--基于缓解中小企业融资约束的视角

从缓解中小企业融资约束的视角出发,对基于抵质押制度和声誉机制共同激励的财务公司产业链金融信用风险控制机制进行研究。在一个中小企业类型为单边非完全信息结构的假设条件下,建立博弈模型分析抵质押制度与声誉机制共同激励下中小企业的行为选择,研究发现共同激励可以有效扩大财务公司的安全授信边界,既能确保财务公司控制中小企业信用风险,又能增加中小企业的授信额度。     

航空经济发展的金融需求分析--基于“供给领先”和“需求跟随”的金融发展理论

帕特里克论证了金融体系在提高存量资本和新增资本配置效率、加速资本积累中的作用,提出了“供给领先”和“需求跟随”的金融发展理论。基于产品生命周期理论,我们将航空经济的发展阶段界定为形成期、发展期和成熟期。在形成期,金融支持模式主要是由政府主导的“供给领先型”模式,金融需求主要有基础设施建设资金需求,航空产业长远发展的资金需求,吸引企业入驻资金需求,以及已入驻企业的研发资金需求;在成长期,“需求跟随型”金融支持开始占据主导,主要的金融需求有生产、生活设施建设的资金需求,企业规模化生产的资金需求,航空型人才培训的资金需求;在成熟期,以市场主导的“供给领先型”金融支持又将航空经济发展推向一个更高的阶段,此时的金融需求主要包括企业转型升级的资金需求,企业技术创新的资金需求,以及保障企业长远发展的资金需求。     

对智能金融业态的趋势探索--展望移动金融的下一业态

尝试以金融业的溯源和转变为线索,剖析了以网点机构为代表的物理金融、以网上银行为达标的电子金融和以手机银行为代表的移动金融三大发展业态。在此基础上,分析当前以手机终端模式的移动金融业态的三项不足,并提出一种新型移动金融业态。这种新型业态暂定名为“智能金融业态”,它具备设备个性可穿戴、低碳环保、线下交互、安全私密和智慧高效等五大主要特征。未来,金融业态很可能实现由移动金融业态向智能金融业态的升级,满足客户更广更深层次的需要。